Economy and regulatory updates
- India’s infrastructure output grew 4.8% on-year in August 2026, compared with a 5.0% increase in July 2026, reflecting continued expansion across the core sectors.
- The HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for India rose to 55.7 in September 2026 from 52.8 in August 2026. The HSBC Flash Services PMI increased to 58.1 from 54.1, while the HSBC Flash Composite PMI advanced to 56.5 from 54.6.
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, raised its fiscal 2027 GDP growth forecast for India by 80 basis points to 7.1%, citing strong domestic demand and investment activity.
- S&P Global Ratings increased its fiscal 2027 GDP growth forecast for India to 7.0% from 6.6%, supported by robust economic activity and domestic demand.
- India’s outward foreign direct investment increased 23.3% on-year to $3.8 billion in August 2026, compared with $3.11 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year.
- The Government of India reduced customs duties on crude and refined soybean, palm and sunflower oils, a move expected to lower import costs and ease retail edible oil prices.
- The government has asked Microsoft to consider establishing data centres closer to power-generation hubs to improve energy efficiency and reliability.
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) issued the final Basel III market risk capital framework for commercial banks, mandating implementation from April 1, 2027. The framework is intended to strengthen capital requirements against market-risk exposures and align domestic regulations with global banking standards.
- The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) approved reforms to portfolio management services (PMS) regulations, including a Portfolio Managers Route for Investing in Mutual Fund Units (PRIM), along with changes to settlement proceedings.
- According to SEBI data, commitments to alternative investment funds (AIFs) rose 24% on-year to Rs 17.53 trillion as of June 2026.
Source: MOSPI, RBI
Indian debt market update
- The interbank call money rate ended lower at 5.20% in the week ended September 25, compared with 5.25% in the week ended September 18
- The yield on the 10-year benchmark 6.94% GS 2036 paper closed at 7.12% in the week ended September 25, compared with 7.06% in the week ended September 18 amid expectations of tighter monetary conditions, persistent liquidity absorption by the RBI and elevated global bond yields.
- Global factors added pressure on domestic bonds, with higher US Treasury yields and elevated brent crude oil prices raising concerns over imported inflation and the domestic monetary policy outlook. Pressure intensified towards the end of the week, with the benchmark yield reaching 7.12% amid a broader global bond sell-off.
- The government’s bond auction and uncertainty surrounding the October-March borrowing programme also contributed to the cautious sentiment.
Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database, RBI ^ Data as of 18th Sep 2026 vs 11th Sep 2026 vs 14th Aug 2026 respectively
Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database
Indian equity market updates
- Indian equities ended the week lower as persistent global uncertainties, rising bond yields and concerns over potential interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) weighed on investor sentiment.
- Selling pressure intensified following proposed regulatory changes in the insurance sector. However, intermittent gains driven by a strong domestic growth outlook helped limit losses. The BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 declined 0.54% and 0.88%, respectively.
- Sectoral performance was largely negative during the week. The BSE Information Technology, BSE Power and BSE Capital Goods indices fell 1.70%, 1.46% and 1.17%, respectively, due to rising global bond yields and profit booking.
- In contrast, the BSE Realty, BSE Consumer Durables and BSE fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) indices gained 3.36%, 1.34% and 1.02%, respectively, supported by value buying and a resilient domestic demand outlook.
- Weekly flows in equity: Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) recorded net inflows of Rs 16,398.15 crore, while Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) saw net outflows of Rs 11,490.03 crore.
- MTD trend: DIIs reported net inflows of Rs 52,616.83 crore, whereas FIIs registered net outflows of Rs 17,131.00 crore.
- YTD positioning: DIIs remained net buyers at Rs 6,08,568.93 crore, while FIIs remained net sellers at Rs 2,41,572.00 crore.
Source: BSE, NSE
Source: SEBI, NSE, NSDL
Global Equity market summary
- US equities ended the week higher supported by gains in Advanced Micro Devices and artificial intelligence-related stocks. However, few losses were witnessed as higher Brent crude oil prices and rising global Treasury yields weighed on sentiment amid ongoing Middle East tensions.
- Britain’s FTSE index ended the week higher, led by gains in banking stocks. However, renewed inflation concerns, rising global bond yields and uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict limited gains.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose, driven by gains in technology and semiconductor stocks following the launch of a new artificial intelligence-focused device that boosted optimism for chip demand. Strength in financial stocks provided additional support.
- China’s Shanghai Composite index ended lower as concerns over tariffs, semiconductor export restrictions and broader US-China trade relations prompted profit-taking despite a two-month extension of the trade truce. However, property stocks advanced on support measures for major residential real estate developers.
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index ended lower as concerns over China Europe trade tensions and lingering uncertainty surrounding tariffs and US export controls on advanced semiconductors weighed on sentiment.
Source: Websites of respective stock exchanges
Global Yield
- The US 10-year Treasury yield rose during the week amid persistent inflation concerns and expectations of a higher-for-longer interest rate environment following the US Fed’s recent rate hike
- The rise was further supported by elevated brent crude oil prices, which reinforced inflation concerns and the potential for additional monetary policy tightening.
- Higher long-term borrowing costs and continued concerns over the US fiscal position also exerted upward pressure on Treasury yields as investors reassessed the outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates.
- The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.17% on September 25, compared with 5.01% on September 18.
Source: Financial Websites
Commodities and Currency
- Crude oil prices fell during the week on the NYMEX closing at $92.41 per barrel on September 25, 2026, compared to $100.30 per barrel on September 18, 2026, as hopes of diplomatic progress in the Iran conflict and a partial recovery in Saudi shipments eased supply concerns.
- Gold prices declined to Rs 1,52,113 per 10 grams on September 25, 2026, from Rs 1,53,727 per 10 grams on September 18, 2026, pressured by a stronger US dollar, rising Treasury yields and expectations of further US Fed interest rate hikes.
- Silver prices declined to Rs 2,32,350 per kg on September 25, 2026, from Rs 2,36,908 per kg on September 18, 2026, tracking weakness in gold prices amid a stronger US dollar and rising global yields.
- The rupee ended lower at Rs 95.89 against the US dollar on a weekly basis, due to a stronger US dollar, expectations of further US Fed rate hikes and intermittent importer hedging demand, keeping the currency largely range-bound.
Source: Respective commodity exchanges, ibjarates.com
Source: RBI Reference Rate
Global Economic
- US industrial production increased by 1.4% year on year in August 2026 compared to 1.13% in July 2026.
- Eurozone ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations increased to 3% in August 2026 compared to 2.9% in July 2026.
- UK retail sales rose 2.4% year-on-year in August 2026, up from a revised growth rate of 1.2% in July 2026.
- The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintained its key lending rates at record lows for a 16th consecutive month in September 2026. The one year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was kept at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR remained at 3.5%.
- Japan S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI declined to 54.1 in September 2026 compared to 54.9 in August 2026 while the S&P Global Flash Services PMI fell to 51.6 from 52.5 and the S&P Global Flash Composite PMI edged down to 52.5 from 53.5.
Source: Financial Websites
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