Key Market Insights - Altifi Weekly Bulletin | 23 January 2026

Altifi Weekly Bulletin: 23rd January, 2026

Economy and regulatory updates

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said India remains a key engine of growth for the global economy and indicated that it is likely to upgrade the country’s growth forecast in its upcoming January review.
• The IMF has raised India's growth projection to 7.3% for fiscal 2026, up 0.7 percentage point from its October 2025 forecast, on account of better-than-expected performance of the economy.
• The IMF revised India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for fiscal 2027 upwards by 20 basis points to 6.4% from its October 2025 projection.
• Moody's Ratings expects India to clock 7.3% growth in the current fiscal and said the strong economic expansion would support average household incomes and stimulate demand for insurance protection.
• Fitch Ratings said the aggregate revenue for its rated corporates will rise 6% in fiscal 2027 on steady GDP growth and an improved consumer-spending outlook, following a comprehensive reduction in the goods and services tax rates.
• The Union Cabinet approved the infusion of Rs 5,000 crore equity capital into the Small Industries Development Bank of India (SIDBI), to increase flow of credit to micro, small and medium enterprises.
• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has increased the compensation limit for customers to Rs 30 lakh for consequential losses and Rs 3 lakh for harassment, effective July 1, 2026, to provide meaningful relief to consumers, while balancing the interests of regulated entities.
• The RBI has updated its Priority Sector Lending guidelines to reflect regulatory changes, added the National Cooperative Development Corporation as an eligible on-lending entity and clarified existing rules.
• The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) notified the revamped Mutual Fund Regulations, marking a comprehensive overhaul of the three-decade-old framework.
• The SEBI has proposed a Rs 20,000-crore asset threshold to identify “significant indices” that will come under the ambit of its newly notified Index Providers Regulations, 2024, as part of efforts to strengthen governance and oversight of benchmarks used by mutual funds.

Domestic macroeconomic indicators

Source: MOSPI, RBI

Indian debt market update

• The interbank call money rate ended lower at 5.30% on January 23, 2026, compared with 5.40% on January 16.
• Government bond prices ended higher in the week ended January 23 and the yield on the 10-year benchmark 6.48% GS 2035 closed at 6.66% compared with 6.68% on January 16.
• Government bond prices ended higher owing to expectations of RBI liquidity support through open market operations (OMOs) and secondary market buying. Reports of RBI purchases and hopes of more OMOs encouraged traders to add positions despite lingering disappointment over Bloomberg’s global aggregate bond index inclusion and caution ahead of the Union Budget.
• In the weekly debt sale held on January 23, the RBI auctioned the new (government security or GS 2029, new GS 2033 and 7.24% GS 2055 for a total notified amount of Rs 33,000 crore.
• Further, bond prices rose because of lower-than-expected state bond supply for the week.

Indian debt market indicators

Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database, RBI *Weighted Average Yield ^Data as of 16th January 2026 vs 9th January 2026 vs 12th December 2025 respectively

India yield curve shift (%) (W-o-W)*

Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database; *Weighted Average Yield

Indian equity market updates

• Indian equities ended lower this week due to persistent foreign fund outflows, mixed corporate earnings and geopolitical uncertainty amid caution ahead of the Union Budget. However, gains were seen owing to easing US tariff concerns. The BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 fell 2.43% and 2.51%, respectively.
• All the major sectors ended lower with realty, consumer durables and power losing the most. The BSE Realty, BSE Consumer Durables and BSE Power indices fell 11.33%, 5.29% and 4.07%, respectively.
• The domestic market bought Rs 3,173 crore worth of equities on January 23, 2026, compared with buying of Rs 3,077 crore worth of equities on January 16, 2026.
• Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth Rs 2,144 crore on January 22, 2026, compared with selling of Rs 3,491 crore on January 16, 2026.
• Domestic mutual funds remained net buyers, purchasing equities worth Rs 3,438 crore on January 21, 2026.

Indian equity Indices

Source: BSE, NSE

Source: SEBI, NSE

Global Equity market summary

• US stocks had a mixed week, with the NASDAQ Composite declining 0.34% over concerns of renewed volatility sparked by fresh tariff uncertainty from the US President against Europe.
• However, later in the week, gains of 0.05% were seen in the Dow Jones Index on expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Fed and gains in sectors such as consumer stocks.
• The UK’s FTSE Index fell 0.83% during the week primarily because investor sentiment was affected adversely by uncertainty over the US President proposed tariffs related to Greenland.
• However, there were some gains on the back of robust financial sector earnings and improved performance from resource-linked equities. Moreover, the UK’s economy displayed resilience, underscored by encouraging growth that served to cushion the FTSE.
• Asian equities closed mixed this week. Japan's Nikkei ended 0.17% lower primarily due to concerns regarding a potential shift in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy stance to a more hawkish direction, which could precipitate interest rate hikes within the year.
• Furthermore, there was profit booking amidst uncertainties surrounding geopolitical developments and domestic policy initiatives. However, few gains were witnessed owing to a rise in domestic bonds and easing tensions between the US and Europe.
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended 0.36% lower primarily due to China's slower-than-expected fourth-quarter growth numbers and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. The threat of new tariffs from the US against several countries added to the downward pressure.
• However, the market saw some gains after China's central bank hinted at further policy easing, and the US suspended its tariff threats against Europe.
• China's Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.83% higher this week driven by gains in artificial intelligence firms, following regulatory measures to curb market manipulation. Easing geopolitical uncertainty also provided a boost.

Global equity benchmark indices’ returns

Source: Websites of respective stock exchanges; *Data as on January 22

Global Yield

• US Treasury prices remained rangebound during the holiday shortened week amid ongoing tensions around “sell America” and tariff threats.
• Bond prices fell amid turbulence in the Japanese government bonds and worries over trade between the US and Europe because of geopolitical uncertainty. Bond prices declined further as risk sentiment improved after US dropped its tariff threat on Europe, citing a framework for Greenland's acquisition.
• Investors also sold US government debt in the wake of turmoil in Japanese bonds and Trump's threat to impose tariffs on European goods if the US is not allowed to acquire Greenland.
• The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury bond ended at 4.26% on January 22, compared with 4.24% on January 16.

Major global bond yields

Source: Financial Websites *As of January 22

Commodities and Currency

• Crude oil prices fell to $59.36 per barrels on the NYMEX on week on 22, January 2026 due to easing geopolitical tension despite supply concerns after temporary shutdowns in a major oil-producing nation and a slow recovery in oil exports from another key producer.
• Gold prices ended higher this week amid haven demand due to escalated geopolitical uncertainty and potential threats to the US Federal Reserve’s independence.
• The rupee closed weak against the US dollar this week due to steady corporate demand for dollars, sustained foreign fund outflows and geopolitical uncertainty. Further, losses were seen due to delays in a possible US-India trade deal.

Commodity prices

*Data as on January 22, 2026 Source: Respective commodity exchanges, ibjarates.com

Other currencies vs the rupee

Source: Financial Websites

Global Economic

• The US economy expanded 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025 compared to 3.8% growth in the second quarter.
• US PCE Prices increased to 2.8% in the third quarter of 2025 compared to 2.1% in the second quarter of 2025.
• US Industrial Production growth rate slowed to 2% in December 2025, compared to 2.5% in the preceding month.
• UK consumer price inflation rose to 3.4% in December 2025, compared to 3.2% in November 2025 while the core inflation rate annual core inflation rate stood at 3.2% in December 2025, unchanged from the previous month.
• The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept key lending rates at record lows for an eighth consecutive month in January. The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the benchmark for most corporate and household borrowing, remained at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR, which anchors mortgage rates, was unchanged at 3.5%.
• The Chinese economy expanded 4.5% in Q4 2025, compared to 4.8% growth in Q3 2025.
• China industrial production advanced 5.2% in December 2025, accelerating compared to a 4.8% rise in November 2025.
• Japan Industrial Production declined 2.2% in November 2025 compared to 1.6% gain in October 2025.
• Japan’s annual inflation eased to 2.1% in December 2025 from 2.9% in the prior month, the lowest since March 2022 while core inflation rose 2.4% easing from 3%.

Macro indicators

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