Altifi Weekly Bulletin: February 2026 (Week 3)
Economy and regulatory updates
- India wholesale prices rose 1.81% on-year in January 2026, compared with a 0.83% increase in December 2025.
- The country’s unemployment rate rose to 5.0% in January against 4.8% in December.
- According to government export and import data, India’s merchandise trade deficit surged to $34.68 billion in January compared with $25.04 billion in December.
- India eight core infrastructure sectors grew by 4% in January 2026, compared to a revised 4.7% growth in December 2025.
- India HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 57.5 in February 2026 compared to 55.4 in January 2026 while the HSBC Flash Services PMI edged down to 58.4 from 58.5 and the HSBC Flash Composite PMI increased to 59.3 from 58.4.
- India and Israel signed an MoU to deepen defence ties and strengthen ongoing joint activities, including future seminars and cooperative initiatives.
- The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) bulletin for January month said the completion of the India-European Union free trade negotiations and the interim trade pact between India and the United States (US) were likely to play a significant role by enhancing market access and export competitiveness.
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has authorized lenders to finance company acquisitions up to 20% of their eligible capital base, aiming to foster credit growth.
- The central bank’s minutes of the February 4–6 meeting showed India’s growth outlook had brightened while inflation remained benign, giving policymakers time to stay patient.
- The Securities and Exchange Board of India proposed revising how exchange-traded funds determined base prices and daily price bands to better reflect real-time market conditions and reduce manual errors.
Source: MOSPI, RBI
Indian debt market update
- The interbank call money rate ended lower at 5.00% on February 20, 2026 from 5.05% on February 13, 2026.
- Government bond prices declined this week ended February 20 and the yield on the 10-year benchmark 6.48% GS 2035 paper closed at 6.72% on February 20 compared to 6.68% on February 13.
- Bond prices declined after a fresh debt switch announcement heightened concerns over increased long-duration supply. Further fall witnessed due to rising geopolitical tensions which intensified rally in global crude oil prices.
- Higher than expected weekly bond auction cut-offs also kept bond prices under pressure. In the weekly debt sale held on February 20, the RBI auctioned 6.03% GS 2029, 6.68% GS 2033 and 7.24% GS 2055 for a total notified amount of Rs 33,000 crore.
- However, few gains were witnessed earlier in the week tracking rally in US bond prices after softer US inflation data.
Source: Crisil Fixed Income Database, RBI *Weighted Average Yield ^Data as of 13th Feb 2026 vs 6th Feb 2026 vs 9th Jan 2026 respectively
Source: Crisil Fixed Income Database; *Weighted Average Yield
Indian equity market updates
- Indian equities ended marginally higher this week, supported by positive quarterly earnings and sustained buying momentum despite escalating tensions between the US and Iran. However, profit booking and concerns over rising crude oil prices led to some losses. The BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 rose 0.23% and 0.39%, respectively.
- Most of the major sectors ended higher with Power, Capital Goods (CG) and Bankex gaining the most. BSE Power, BSE CG and BSE Bankex rose 2.53%, 2.01% and 1.96%, respectively.
- The domestic market bought around Rs 2,480 crore worth of equities on February 20, 2026 compared with buying of Rs 5,554 crore worth of equities on February 13, 2026.
- Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth Rs 948 crore on February 19 compared with buying of Rs 108 crore on February 12.
- Domestic mutual funds were net sellers, selling equities worth Rs 3,064 crore on month to date basis on February 19, 2026.
Source: BSE, NSE
Source: SEBI, NSE
Global Equity market summary
- US stocks were trading mixed (Dow Jones -0.21% and Nasdaq Composite +0.60%) during the week with the Nasdaq Composite advancing as earnings resilience and sectoral rotation into financials and industrials offered pockets of support.
- However, the Dow Jones declined due to AI disruption risk in tech, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s rate path.
- Britain’s FTSE index closed 1.73% higher as softer inflation data strengthened expectations of a near-term interest rate cut by the Bank of England. Gains in defence stocks driven by expectations of higher UK military spending.
- Asian equities closed lower this week. Japan's Nikkei index ended 0.20% lower amid rising geopolitical tensions and subdued economic data. However, optimism over Japan's $550 billion US investment plan and government spending limited further losses.
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended -0.58% lower due to worries around geopolitical tensions and selloff in technology stocks. However, few gains were witnessed amid expectations of liquidity and policy support from Beijing.
Source: Websites of respective stock exchanges; *Data as on Feb 19
Global Yield
- US Treasury prices declined during the week buoyed by strong economic data and hawkish narrative from the Federal Reserve.
- US treasury prices fell as robust economic indicators, including manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index numbers and jobs data for January month reinforced the hopes that the economy remains resilient. Further, Fed commentary retained hawkish undertones, dampening expectations for aggressive near-term rate cuts and kept treasury prices under pressure.
- However, heightened geopolitical risks cut short few losses in the treasury prices.
- The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury bond ended at 4.08% on February 19, 2026, compared with 4.04% on February 13, 2026.
Source: Financial Websites *As of Feb 19
Commodities and Currency
- Crude oil prices rose during the week on the NYMEX, following softer US inflation data and supply concerns amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
- Gold prices ended higher this week, boosted by safe haven demand amid escalating geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices.
- Silver prices ended higher this week, mirroring the similar trend in gold amid escalating geopolitical tensions and mixed global cues.
- The rupee closed lower against the US dollar this week, pressured by persistent dollar demand and pressure from rising crude oil prices amid geopolitical tensions. However, few gains were seen due to intermittent support from domestic equities.
*Data as on Feb 19, 2026 Source: Respective commodity exchanges, ibjarates.com
Source: Financial websites
Global Economic
- US annual inflation rate slowed to 2.4% in January 2026, compared to 2.7% in December 2025 while the annual core consumer price inflation rate edged down to 2.5% from 2.6%.
- US economy grew at a sluggish 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, after a robust 4.4% expansion in the previous quarter.
- US industrial production rose 2.3% on a yearly basis in January 2026, accelerating from a revised 1.3% increase in December 2025.
- The Eurozone economy expanded by 1.3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to 1.4% in the third quarter of 2025.
- Eurozone Industrial production rose to 1.2% year over year in December 2025 compared to 2.2% gain in November 2025.
- UK consumer price inflation eased to 3.0% in January 2026, compared to 3.4% in December 2025 while the annual core inflation rate edged down to 3.1% from 3.2%.
- UK Retail Price Index rose by 3.8% in January 2026, compared to a 4.2% increase in December 2025.
- China Outstanding loans growth eased to 6.1% in January 2026 compared to 6.4% in December 2025.
- The Japanese economy grew at an annualized pace of 0.2% in Q4 2025, compared to a revised 2.6% contraction in the previous quarter.
- Japan annual inflation eased to 1.5% in January 2026 compared to 2.1% in December 2025 while the core consumer price index inflation, edged down to 2% from 2.4%.
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