Economy and regulatory updates
- India’s Wholesale Price Index-based inflation accelerated to 9.68% on-year in May 2026 from a marginally revised 8.26% in April 2026.
- India unemployment rate rose to 5.5% in May 2026 compared with 5.2% in April 2026.
- India merchandise trade deficit stood at $28.21 billion in May, with exports at $45.2 billion and imports at $73.41 billion.
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) introduced a framework allowing banks to offer differential interest rates on deposits based on the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) run-offs, marking a structural shift in deposit pricing and potentially improving bank liquidity management and encouraging higher inflow of foreign investment.
- The RBI clarified that the payment of incentives by third parties to employees of regulated entities is prohibited, but banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are free to incentivise employees for sale of financial products.
- The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has introduced a revised framework for exchange-traded funds, replacing fixed price bands with dynamic limits and updating the method used to calculate base prices.
- SEBI has introduced a framework that allows alternative investment funds to retain liquidation proceeds beyond their fund life, subject to specific conditions.
- The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India proposed regulatory amendments to allow mergers between insurers and non-insurance holding companies, alongside easing transaction fees and refining promoter/shareholding norms to improve ease of doing business and sectoral growth.
- The Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority has mandated regular audits of the points of presence offering National Pension System services by external auditors to ensure compliance with know-your-customer norms, fund handling and operational standards, tightening oversight of pension intermediaries.
Source: MOSPI, RBI
Indian debt market update
- The interbank call money rate ended higher at 5.30% in the week ended June 19 compared with 5.20% in the week ended June 12.
- The yield on the 10-year benchmark 6.48% GS 2035 paper closed lower at 6.88% on June 19 vs 6.89% on June 12 due to easing oil prices, which eased inflationary concerns.
- However, later in the week, the yield gained due to short covering at lower level.
- Next week, debt investors are likely to focus on banking system liquidity conditions, movement in US treasury yield and global crude oil prices.
Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database, RBI ^ Data as of 12th Jun 2026 vs 5th Jun 2026 vs 8th May 2026 respectively
Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database
Indian equity market updates
- Indian equities ended the week higher, driven by easing crude oil prices and the expectations of strong credit growth. However, losses were witnessed due to heavy selling in information technology (IT) stocks and weak global cues. The BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 rose 1.69% and 1.65%, respectively.
- Most of the sectors ended higher this week. Capital goods (CG), realty, and power ended in the positive zone due to sector-specific gains. The BSE CG, BSE Realty and BSE Power gained 5.97%, 5.44% and 4.66%, respectively.
- IT stocks declined due to profit booking and valuation-related pressures. The BSE IT edged down to 1.25% on a weekly basis.
- In the upcoming week, banking and financials, IT, and oil and gas are expected to remain the key sectors in focus. Investors will monitor banking and financial stocks amid expectations of stable interest rates, while concerns over global technology spending will keep IT stocks under watch. Lower crude oil prices are likely to influence investor sentiment in the oil and gas sector.
- Weekly flows: Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) recorded net inflows of Rs 12,449.18 crore, while Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) saw net outflows of Rs 2,554.92 crore.
- MTD trend: DIIs reported net inflows of Rs 65,055.41 crore, whereas FIIs registered net outflows of Rs 47,903.16 crore.
- YTD positioning: DIIs remained net buyers at Rs 4,41,840.02 crore, while FIIs stand as net sellers at Rs 3,32,303.58 crore.
Source: BSE, NSE
Source: SEBI, NSE, NSDL
Global Equity market summary
- US equities advanced during the week as lower oil prices and improved risk sentiment supported gains. Strength in semiconductor stocks and a strong SpaceX debut further boosted the markets, although intermittent weakness in technology shares and expectations of a Fed rate hike capped the upside.
- Britain’s FTSE 100 declined over the week, weighed down by losses in mining and technology stocks, alongside cautious investor positioning ahead of domestic inflation data and the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates steady. Improved global risk sentiment provided some support.
- Asian equities closed mixed during the week. Japan's Nikkei index rose, supported by declining oil prices, easing geopolitical risks and strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor stocks.
- China’s Shanghai Composite closed the week higher, supported by improved sentiment and regulatory backing for technology and AI sectors. These gains were partially offset by continued weakness in consumer demand, financials and the property sector due to mixed economic data.
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined, reversing early gains of the week as mainland retail sales data and continued stress in the property sector dampened sentiment. Weakness in the technology sector and uncertainty around interest rates reinforced a cautious investor outlook.
Source: Websites of respective stock exchanges; *Data as of Jun 18
Global Yield
- US 10-year treasury yields declined marginally during the week as gains post Federal Reserve’s policy decision were capped by easing crude oil prices.
- During the week, the Fed maintained interest rates but signaled a higher likelihood of future rate hikes, pushing short-term yields higher. However, a sharp decline in crude oil prices following the U.S.-Iran agreement helped reduce inflation expectations, supporting Treasury prices and limiting upward pressure on long-term yields. As a result, the benchmark 10-year yield ended the week marginally lower despite heightened policy uncertainty.
- The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield declined to 4.46% on June 18, 2026, from 4.58% on June 12, 2026
Source: Financial Websites, *Data as of Jun 18
Commodities and Currency
- Crude oil prices fell during the week on the NYMEX to $76.60 per barrel in the week ended 18, June 2026 compared with $84.88 per barrel in the week ended 12, June 2026, after a 14-point agreement in the West Asia peace talks extended a ceasefire announced in April by 60 days.
- Gold prices ended lower this week to Rs 1,44,970 per 10 gram on June 19 from Rs 1,47,800 per 10 gram in the week ended June 12 due to a stronger dollar index following renewed expectations of a Fed rate hike.
- Silver prices edged down to Rs 2,31,973 per kg on June 19 from Rs 2,42,582 per kg on June 12 due to pressure from a firm dollar and subdued industrial demand.
- The rupee ended the week higher at Rs 94.47 against the US dollar, supported by robust debt inflows, RBI’s dollar-attracting measures and lower crude oil prices,
- However, the upside was capped by renewed expectations of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), a firmer dollar and late-session foreign fund outflows.
Source: Respective commodity exchanges, ibjarates.com, *Data as of Jun 18
Source: RBI Reference Rate
Global Economic
- The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% for a fourth meeting under the new Chair Kevin Warsh. Projections were split, with officials evenly divided between hikes and no change or cuts.
- Eurozone annual inflation stood up to 3.2% in May 2026 compared to 3.0% in April 2026 while the core inflation increased 2.6% from 2.2%.
- The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75% in a 7–2 vote in June 2026, balancing easing inflation with ongoing uncertainty from volatile energy prices, as some policymakers pushed for a hike while officials cautioned that lingering energy costs, potential wage price pressures, and a cooling economy and labour market could shape future inflation trends.
- China industrial production edged up to 4.5% year-on-year in May 2026, accelerating compared to a 4.1% rise in April 2026.
- The Bank of Japan raised its key short-term rate by 25 bps to 1.0% in June 2026, to curb inflation risks from rising energy costs, while maintaining accommodative conditions and signaling further data-dependent rate hikes.
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