Altifi Weekly Bulletin: 16th January, 2026
Economy and regulatory updates
- India’s annual inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 1.33% in December 2025, compared with 0.71% in November 2025.
- The annual inflation based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) increased to 0.83% in December 2025, compared with -0.32% in November 2025.
- The trade deficit widened to $25 billion in December 2025 from $20.6 billion in December 2024.
- The unemployment rate in the county reached 4.8% in December 2025 from 4.7% in November.
- While negotiation a free trade agreement (FTA), India and the European Union (EU) reaffirmed their commitment to a rules-based trading framework and a modern economic partnership that safeguards the interests of farmers and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs).
- Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India V Anantha Nageswaran said inclusive finance has to be embedded into the ecosystem of healthcare insurance and social security to protect lenders as well as borrowers.
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed the ways and means advances (WMA) limit for the Delhi government at Rs 890 crore to help it meet any temporary mismatch in receipts and payments.
- The RBI has directed banks and eligible non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) to automatically escalate partially resolved or rejected complaints to the internal ombudsman and convey their final decision to the complainant within 30 days of receipt of the complaint.
- The RBI has recognised the Foreign Exchange Dealers’ Association of India (FEDAI) as a self-regulatory organisation (SRO) for all authorised dealers under its omnibus framework for SROs.
- The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) proposed measures to ease doing business and compliance for stock exchanges, as part of a review of its master circulars.
- The SEBI overhauled the framework for dealing with technical glitches in stockbrokers' electronic trading systems, easing compliance norms, rationalising financial disincentives and excluding smaller brokers from the ambit of the rules.
Domestic macroeconomic indicators
Source: MOSPI, RBI
Indian debt market update
- The interbank call money rate ended higher at 5.40% on January 16, compared with 5.30% on January 9.
- Government bond prices ended the week lower with the yield on the 10- year benchmark 6.48% GS (government security) 2035 paper closing at 6.68% on January 16, compared with 6.64% on January 9.
- Government bond prices ended lower in the week after Bloomberg Index Services deferred India’s inclusion in its Global Aggregate Index.
- The decision triggered unwinding of positions built on index-inflow expectations and revived concerns over the market’s ability to absorb heavy upcoming central and state debt supply, pushing yields higher through the week.
- In the weekly debt sale held on January 16, the RBI auctioned 6.01% GS 2030 and New GS 2076 for a notified Rs 31,000 crore.
- Some gains were seen as states trimmed their weekly auction size, easing near-term supply pressures and boosting demand.
Indian debt market indicators
Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database. RBI *Weighted Average Yield ^Data as of 9th January 2026 vs 2nd January 2026 vs 5th December 2025 respectively
India yield curve shift (%) (W-o-W)*
Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database; *Weighted Average Yield
Indian equity market updates
- Indian equities ended mixed this week as early gains driven by optimism over a potential US-India trade deal were offset by losses stemming from rising crude oil prices, persistent foreign fund outflows, a weaker rupee and concerns over the United States (US) imposing fresh tariffs. The BSE Sensex fell 0.01; the Nifty 50 rose 0.04%.
- Almost all the major sectors ended lower, with capital goods (CG), consumer durables (CD) and realty losing the most. The BSE CG, BSE CD and BSE Realty indices fell 2.49%, 2.40% and 2.33%, respectively. However, BSE Metal, BSE Information Technology (IT) and BSE Bankex topped the list of gainers, rising 4.52%, 2.66% and 2.02%, respectively.
- The domestic market bought Rs 3,077 crore worth of equities on January 16, 2026, compared with buying of 5,341 crore worth of equities on January 9, 2026.
- Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth Rs 4,714 crore on January 15, 2026, compared with selling of Rs 3,609 crore on January 9, 2026.
- Domestic mutual funds remained net buyers, purchasing equities worth Rs 3,216 crore on January 14, 2026.
Indian equity Indices
Source: BSE, NSE
Source: SEBI, NSE
Global Equity market summary
- US stocks declined with Dow Jones falling 0.12% and Nasdaq down 0.60 during the week largely due to a decline in financial shares on the US President’s proposal to impose a cap on credit-card interest rates; disappointing bank earnings adversely affected technology stocks.
- However, sectors such as consumer stocks gained as a softer US jobs report sustained expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Fed.
- Britain's FTSE Index ended higher with 1.13% gain during the week due to robust earnings, which fuelled a rally in financial stocks.
- The index received additional support from advances in the mining and healthcare sectors, and upbeat growth data that underscored the economy's resilience. However, there were some losses due to concerns over domestic inflation and the central bank's policy stance.
- Asian equities closed mixed this week. Japan's Nikkei ended 3.84% higher on week on speculation that the Prime Minister may dissolve the House of Representatives and call a general election, potentially paving the way for increased fiscal stimulus measures.
- However, profit booking brought in some loses. A strong yen, too, weighed on exporters’ stocks.
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index edged up 2.34% during the week due to healthcare and technology stocks. The market also benefited from a decline in trade tensions, following reports that the EU is reconsidering tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. China's record trade surplus for 2025 also contributed to the index's gains.
- However, profit booking brought in some losses.
- China's Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.45% this week due to regulatory measures that tightened margin financing rules and sparked profit-taking.
- However, some positive momentum was seen due to gains in shares in AI and commercial space, and an uptick in market sentiment following the release of encouraging trade data.
Global equity benchmark indices’ returns
Source: Websites of respective stock exchanges; *Data as on January 15th
Global Yield
- US Treasury prices ended marginally higher over the week as mixed economic signals kept investors cautious and limited strong directional conviction.
- Bond prices were higher. Stronger economic and productivity data reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve (Fed) would go slow on rate cuts. Intermittent gains were seen on weaker employment indicators and bouts of event-driven safe-haven demand.
- Markets remained wary ahead of the release of key economic data, prompting investors to reassess the growth outlook and the Fed’s policy trajectory.
- The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury bond ended at 4.17% on January 15 compared with 4.18% on January 9.
Major global bond yields
Source: Financial Websites *As of January 15th
Commodities and Currency
- Crude oil prices rose marginally to $59.19 per barrels on the NYMEX on week on 15, January 2026 amid supply concerns following escalating geopolitical uncertainties.
- Gold prices ended higher this week due to safe-haven demand amid rising crude oil prices and geopolitical uncertainties.
- The rupee closed weak against the US dollar this week, pressured by a combination of rising global crude oil prices, persistent foreign fund outflows and steady corporate demand for dollars. However, some gains were seen due to optimism around a proposed India-US trade deal.
Commodity prices
*Data as on January 15, 2026 Source: Respective commodity exchanges, ibjarates.com
Other currencies vs the rupee
Source: Financial Websites
Global Economic
- US economy saw a smaller-than-expected gain in payrolls in December 2025, with 50,000 jobs added, compared to 56,000 in November 2025.
- US PPI increased 3% on year in November 2025 compared to 2.8% in October 2025.
- US annual inflation rate remained at 2.7% in December 2025, the same as in November 2025 while annual core consumer price inflation rate remained at 2.6% in December 2025, the lowest since March 2021.
- Eurozone industrial production increased by 2.5% year-over-year in November 2025, accelerating from October’s 1.7%.
- Eurozone retail sales growth accelerated to 2.3% year-over-year in November 2025, compared to a revised 1.9% in October 2025.
- UK economy grew by 1.4% in November 2025 compared to the same period last year, marking an acceleration from the 1.1% growth seen in October 2025.
- UK's trade deficit decreased to £6.12 billion in November 2025, from a revised £6.53 billion in October 2025.
- UK industrial production grew by 2.3% year-on-year in November 2025, accelerating from an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in the previous month.
- UK manufacturing production went up by 2.1% year-on-year in November 2025 rebounding from a downwardly revised 0.2% fall in October 2025.
- China posted a record USD 1.189 trillion trade surplus in 2025, reaching to USD 114.1 billion in December 2025.
- Japan producer prices rose 2.4% year-on-year in December 2025, compared to a 2.7% increase in November 2025.
Macro indicators
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