Altifi Weekly Bulletin: 30th January, 2026
Budget 2026-27 highlights
- The Union budget maintains a measured, growth-oriented stance, prioritizing strategic manufacturing and infrastructure while accepting a slower glide path to fiscal consolidation.
- The fiscal deficit for financial year 2026-27 is estimated at 4.3% of gross domestic product (GDP), with net market borrowings projected at Rs 11.7 lakh crore.
- The government proposed public capex at Rs 12.2 lakh crore in FY 2026-27, up from Rs 11.2 lakh crore in FY 2025-26 (BE).
- An outlay of Rs 20,000 crore over five years proposed to scale up Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) technologies across power, steel, cement, refineries and chemicals.
Taxation
- Raising the STT on futures and options- Increase of STT on futures to 0.05% from 0.02% at present and on options premium and exercise of options from 0.1% and 0.125% to 0.15%.
- Reduction in TCS rate on overseas tour packages, education and medical remittances (under LRS), and expands automated lower or nil TDS certificates.
- Tax buy back for all types of shareholders as capital gains, however promoter will pay additional buyback tax.
Economy and regulatory updates
- India HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.8 in January compared with 55.0 in December. Services PMI increased to 59.3 from 58.0 and the HSBC Flash Composite PMI to 59.5 from 57.8.
- India's industrial production surged 7.8% on-year in December, marking an acceleration from the upwardly revised 7.2% growth in November.
- According to the Economic Survey presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, India’s economy is expected to grow between 6.8% and 7.2% next fiscal.
- India
and the European Union have concluded the negotiations for a landmark free
trade agreement with an aim to significantly increase electronics exports,
reaching nearly $50 billion by 2031.
Source: MPSPI, RBI
Indian debt market update
- The interbank call money rate ended lower at 4.80% on January 30 compared with 5.30% on January 23.
- Government bond prices ended lower this week ended January 30 and the yield on the 10-year benchmark 6.48% Government Security (GS) 2035 closed at 6.70% on January 30 compared with 6.66% on January 23.
- Bond prices ended lower for the week on heavy state borrowing and amid persistent caution ahead of the Union Budget. Bond prices fell further on concerns over high combined central and state borrowings and a weak rupee.
- In the weekly debt sale held on January 30, the RBI auctioned 6.48% GS 2035 for a total notified amount of Rs 32,000 crore.
- However, a few intermittent gains seen due to the RBI’s advanced bond purchases and liquidity support.
Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database, RBI *Weighted Average Yield ^Data as of 23rd Jan 2026 vs 16th Jan 2026 vs 19th Dec 2025 respectively
Source: CRISIL Fixed Income Database; *Weighted Average Yield
Indian equity market updates
- Indian equity markets ended higher this week, driven by optimism over the landmark India–EU free trade agreement and supportive cues from the government’s Economic Survey. However, a few losses were seen due to profit booking as investors turned cautious ahead of the Union Budget to be announced on February 1. The BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 ended the week up 0.90% and 1.09%, respectively.
- Almost all the major sectors ended higher with capital goods (CG), power and oil & gas losing the most. The BSE CG, BSE Power and BSE Oil & Gas rose 7.91%, 6.03% and 5.03%, respectively.
- The domestic market sold Rs 578 crore worth of equities on January 30, 2026, compared with buying of Rs 3,173 crore worth of equities on January 23, 2026.
- Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth Rs 482 crore on January 29, 2026, compared with selling of Rs 3,191 crore on January 23, 2026.
- Domestic mutual funds remained net buyers, purchasing equities worth Rs 2,964 crore on January 23, 2026.
Source: BSE, NSE
Source: SEBI, NSE
Global Equity market summary
- US stocks exhibited a mixed performance during the week. The Nasdaq ended on a positive note with 0.78% gain, buoyed by the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, citing persistent inflation and robust economic growth. Furthermore, energy and chipmaker stocks contributed to the gains.
- Meanwhile the Dow Jones declined 0.06%, primarily due to concerns over US President's threats to impose tariffs on European allies and renewed anxieties regarding the overvaluation of AI stocks, which collectively diminished risk appetite. Additionally, the decline in healthcare stocks, triggered by the US administration's proposal to increase Medicare payments, exacerbated the downturn.
- Britain's FTSE index ended 0.28% higher this week driven by a significant surge in mining stocks, which was fuelled by sharp gains in copper prices. Additionally, a rise in banking stocks contributed to further gains. However, a few losses were seen due to renewed geopolitical uncertainty, which had a dampening effect on investor sentiment.
- Asian equities closed mixed this week. Japan's Nikkei index ended 0.97% lower this week as a stronger yen negatively impacted exporter stocks and investors took profits by selling technology stocks. However, some support was seen from gains in financial and energy stocks, as well as a rally in mining stocks driven by sharp increases in copper prices.
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended 2.38% higher this week boosted by robust Chinese industrial profit data for December and a shift in investor sentiment away from US assets. The index received further support from gains in resource and property stocks. However, some losses were seen due to profit booking.
- China's Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.44% lower during this week, as decline in the technology sector weighed on the index, contributing to its losses. However, some support was seen from a rebound in corporate earnings, as well as gains in non-ferrous metal and financial shares, which limited the decline.
Source: Websites of respective stock exchanges; *Data as on Jan 29
Global Yield
- US Treasury prices remained range bound amid geopolitics uncertainty and mixed set of economic data.
- Treasury yields rose modestly as market participants digested signals around monetary and fiscal conditions - including expectations about future Fed policy and government debt dynamics. This kept a mild upward bias.
- Geopolitical headlines and risk repricing influenced risk assets and safe-haven flows. Episodes of volatility helped support higher yields earlier in the week, before some stabilization.
- However, profit booking capped further gains in yield.
- The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury bond ended at 4.24% on January 29 unchanged from January 23.
Source: Financial Websites *As of Jan 29
Commodities and Currency
- Crude oil prices rose to $65.42 per barrels on the NYMEX on week on 29, January 2026 from $ 61.07 on 23, January 2026 following a winter storm that disrupted crude production facilities along the Gulf Coast, halting exports. Heightened geopolitical tensions added to supply concerns.
- Gold prices in India ended higher this week amid safe-haven demand due to rising geopolitical tensions and cautiousness ahead of the Union Budget announcement.
- Silver prices in India mirroring the trend in gold due to rising geopolitical tensions.
- The rupee closed weak against the US dollar this week, pressured by steady demand for dollars following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy stance along with foreign fund outflows. However, the local unit gained slightly after the news on India-EU FTA.
*Data as on Jan 29, 2026 Source: Respective commodity exchanges, ibjarates.com
Source: Financial websites
Global Economic
- The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at the 3.5%–3.75% target range in its January 2026 meeting, after three consecutive rate cuts last year.
- The trade deficit in the US widened sharply to $56.8 billion in November 2025, the highest in four months, compared to a $29.2 billion gap in October which was the lowest since 2009.
- Eurozone inflation expectations for consumers fell to 24.1 in January 2026, compared to 26.7 in December 2025.
- Eurozone HCOB Flash Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.4 in January 2026 compared to 48.8 in December 2025 while the HCOB Flash Services PMI decreased to 51.9 in from 52.4 and the HCOB Flash Composite PMI was at 51.5 in January of 2026, remaining unchanged from the previous month.
- UK S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 in January 2026, compared to 50.6 in December 2025 while the S&P Global Flash Services PMI picked up to 54.3 from 51.4 and the S&P Global Flash Composite PMI rose to 53.9 from 51.4.
- The Bank of Japan kept its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.75% at its first policy meeting of 2026, ahead of February's snap election.
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